"By the 1966 estimate, Medicare was to cost $6Bn in 1990; the actual cost was $67Bn.There are plenty of other examples, but for the time being, I think this pretty well makes the point... I guess there's not much sense in talking about health care reform anymore though, since it's basically a done-deal. Do I stick around to watch the inevitable future and say "I told you so"? I'm kind of tired of doing that.
Error = 50%/year
By the 1987 estimate, Medicare’s special hospitals subsidy was to cost $100m annually. By 1992, the actual costs were $11Bn.
Error = 220%/year
By the 1988 estimate, Medicare’s home care benefit was to cost $4Bn in 1993. The actual cost was $10Bn.
Error = 50%/year.
Do we see a pattern here?
BTW, in case anyone didn't do the sums, the average error is >100%/year. Maybe that's overstating the point; anyone got other examples?"
Monday, December 28, 2009
Do we see a pattern?
An amusing (to me) comment I read today with respect to Medicare by "Ron L" at Hit & Run: